Foreword
Electric power defines the modern economy. That power is derived from a host of sources. The challenge remains for us to integrate competition and environmental sustainability into a secure energy marketplace.
It's a fascinating time to be involved in the electricity sector. Governments, utility companies and consumers are honing-in on the strategic realities of the power sector:How to produce adequate and increasing volumes of electrons running down wires whilst, at the same time, securing energy dependent fuel supplies and mitigating their climate change impacts.
Energy developments in China and India particularly are transforming the global energy system as a result of their sheer size and their growing importance in international energy markets. However, the consequences of unfettered growth in global energy demand are alarming for all of us. If governments around the world stick with existing policies - the underlying premise of the World Energy Outlook produced by the International Energy Agency (Reference Scenario) - the world's energy needs would be well over 50% higher in 2030 than today. China and India together account for 45% of this increase. China's demand for electricity will likely reach 1.5 billion kilowatts by 2020 based on its macroeconomic growth target according to officials - doubling the country's current electricity consumption.
Concern is also growing that many regions could face electricity capacity shortages as utility companies delay much-needed new plant build, and face difficulties with financing. In the USA, for example, without additional capacity, some areas are projected to fall below their target capacity margins within two or three years. The new US President must therefore move quickly to enact laws controlling carbon emissions, ending the uncertainty holding back new power generation construction.
Worldwide, fossil fuels continue to dominate the fuel mix. Among them, coal is set to grow most rapidly, driven largely by power sector demand in China and India. These trends lead to continued growth in global energy related emissions of carbon-dioxide, from 27 Gt in 2005 to 42 Gt in 2030 - a rise of 57%. China has now overtaken the US to become the world's biggest emitter, while India becomes the third largest emitter by around 2015. China's per capita emissions almost reach those of OECD Europe by 2030.
However, government and international action can appreciably alter these trends. If governments around the world implement policies they are considering today (as assumed in the IEA's Alternative Policy Scenario), global energy related CO2 emissions would level off in the 2020s and reach 34 Gt in 2030 - almost a fifth less than in the Reference Scenario.
If governments don't change their policies, oil and gas imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions are set to grow inexorably through to 2030 - even faster, in fact, than previously forecast. These trends would threaten energy security and accelerate climate change. "The emergence of new major players in global energy markets means that all countries must take vigorous, immediate and collective action to curb runaway energy demand," says IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka. "The next ten years will be crucial for all countries, including China and India, because of the rapid expansion of energy supply infrastructure. We need to act now to bring about a radical shift in investment in favour of cleaner, more efficient and more secure energy technologies."
However, the Outlook also shows how new policies can pave the way to an alternative energy future.
At the same time, it is perhaps ironic that one of the major factors behind increased interest in developing nuclear power comes from an area that has been one of its greatest public weaknesses; the environment. Were it not for the growing realisation that climate change is upon us and that its affects will be costly - very costly - nuclear power may well have been consigned to the scrapheap. We investigate here.
For the past two decades the electric power sector has been undergoing significant changes at global, regional and local levels. These changes vary across the regions - in some cases even within the regions - and reflect various challenges posed by specific regional and national circumstances. Meeting these challenges requires different strategies, activities, and ultimately, different goals/priorities for generation assets. These are the issues we address in WorldPower.
Our thanks again to those of you who assisted us in bringing this critical marketplace into focus.
Guy Isherwood, Editor-in-Chief
Email: gish@commodities-now.com
