New York, June 2010
CPM Group has released its 2010 Platinum Group Metals Long-Term Outlook. The study is a comprehensive analysis of the key market fundamentals of platinum, palladium, and rhodium that are expected to influence the price of these metals through 2019.
The report contains projections for mine-by-mine South African production through 2019, and provides a detailed analysis of South African, U.S., Russian, and Canadian platinum group metal mine production. The report also contains a thorough analysis of platinum group metal scrap recovery from the various end-uses of these metals. Detailed discussions are included on the major global auto markets, electronics sector, and the jewelry markets. The report also addresses the potential threats to platinum group metal fabrication demand going forward. Investment demand, an increasingly important factor influencing the price of these metals, also is discussed at length in this report. The Platinum Group Metals Long-Term Outlook provides 10-year projections of supply, demand, and prices under a base case and two alternative scenarios.

Highlights:
The outlook for platinum, palladium, and rhodium over the next 10 years seems most likely to be one of historically high prices. This outlook is supported by expectations of increased fabrication demand, constrained supplies, and rising investment demand as a result of these positive supply and demand fundamentals.
South Africa is the largest producer of platinum and rhodium and the second largest producer of palladium. Given the high degree of production concentration from South Africa, supply of these metals is very sensitive to issues related to mining in this country. Shortfall of resources such as electricity, skilled labor, and water, is expected to negatively affect supply from South Africa. Importantly, many of these issues are largely unresponsive to the metal price levels. None of these problems are expected to be resolved soon and are expected to add to production costs, which should be supportive of prices during the forecast period. The PGMs are largely produced as by-products in Russia and North America, with the exception of North American Palladium and Stillwater Mining, and therefore supply from these regions is largely influenced by the production of the primary metal, typically nickel and copper.
A growing global auto population, tightening emissions standards, and the lack of commercially viable substitutes for PGMs in auto catalysts is expected to bode well for the fabrication demand of these metals going forward. Auto catalysts are the largest source of demand for the PGMs, which has resulted in growing concerns over new technologies such as electric vehicles and nanotechnology. The report gives consideration to these trends and assesses their likely impact of PGM auto demand over the next 10 years. Demand from the electronics sector and other industrial sectors is expected to grow at a healthy pace during the forecast period.
China is the largest consumer of platinum jewelry. Populations in newly industrialized countries such as China are becoming more affluent. Chinese demand for jewelry is analyzed in the context of this trend.
Investment demand has always played an important role in influencing the prices of PGMs. The compelling fundamentals resulting from constrained supplies and rising fabrication demand are expected to increase investor interest in these metals, adding to the upward trend in prices. In addition to hedge funds and wealthy individuals who typically invested in these metals, the launch of physically backed platinum and palladium exchange traded funds in 2007 has accentuated the role of this particular portion of the PGM market. The reportexplores the workings of investment demand, the drivers behind investors’ decisions about PGMs, and investment demand trends’ long-term implications for PGM market prices.
The CPM Group Platinum Group Metals Long-Term Outlook is part of a series of long-term studies of precious metals markets. These studies are used by producers for strategic planning and in the preparation of technical reports. In addition, institutional investors and physical traders supplement their internal research with CPM Group’s comprehensive analyses, conclusions, and projections. The reports also serve as authoritative reference guides for platinum group metals market statistics. CPM Group sells the reports as stand-alone products, although most clients use the CPM Group reports as parts of broader consulting packages related to the specific metals markets.
Ends --
Alternately, contact Adam Crown at (212) 785-8320 or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it for more information.





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