London, February 2010

Data from World Bureau of Metal Statistics: 2009 base metals balances.

Primary aluminium market in surplus January to December 2009

The calculated market surplus for primary aluminium for January to December 2009 was 587 kt which compares with a surplus of 1884 kt registered in 2008. Demand for primary aluminium was 36.06 million tonnes, 1323 kt less then the equivalent total 2008. Production fell by 2621 kt to 36.64 million tonnes compared with the same period in 2008. Total reported stocks rose slightly during December and ended the month at just over 6.48 million tons, equivalent to about 63 days’ demand.  Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo rose by a further 52 kt and ended the month at 4922.6 kt which was almost double the equivalent total recorded one year earlier. Global producer stocks at the end of last year were 1203 kt which was 473 kt below the previous years close. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production during the year fell by 6.7 per cent compared with 2008. Chinese output fell by 331 kt and currently accounts for 35 per cent of the world production total. China remained a net importer of unwrought aluminium with imports exceeding exports by 1430 kt. However, for the first time in many months, China was actually a net exporter of unwrought Aluminium during December 2009. During the whole of the 2008 calendar year, Chinese net exports totalled 581 kt.

Production in the EU27 fell by 510 kt and NAFTA output fell by a 1020 kt. EU27 demand was 27 per cent below the January to December 2008 period. Global demand fell by 3.5 per cent to 36.06 million tonnes.

In December, primary aluminium production was 3173.5 kt and consumption was 3288.4 kt.

Copper market remains in surplus in January to December 2009

The copper market recorded a surplus of 209.3 kt In January to December 2009 which compares with a surplus of 380 kt in the same months of 2008. Reported stocks rose again during December and were 244 kt higher than in December 2008. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to December was 15.88 million tonnes which was 2.2 per cent higher than in the same months of 2008. Refined production rose by 0.9 per cent to 18.64 million tonnes. Chinese output rose by 330 kt.  Bulgarian, Zambian and Chilean output were jointly 350 kt higher than the previous year but output in Japan, Canada and Germany fell by a total of 223 kt.

Global consumption for the 2009 calendar year was 18.43 million tonnes which was 1.8 per cent higher than the same period of the previous year. Chinese apparent consumption increased by 39 per cent to 7144 kt from 5134 kt in the previous year. However, this increase masks a build up of unreported stocks since the output of semi manufactures was reported to be only 18.7 per cent higher than last year. EU27 demand was, at 3147 kt, 17 per cent below the January to December 2008 total.

In December 2009, refined copper production was 1638.3 kt and consumption was 1602.6 kt.

Lead market records small deficit in January to December 2009

The lead market was in deficit by 19.9 kt in January to December 2009 which compares with a deficit of 93 kt recorded in the 2008 calendar year. Total stocks at the end of December were fractionally higher than at the end of 2008. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

Lead mine production was 4128 kt with Chinese output dominating the global supply. Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 2.7 per cent higher than the equivalent figure recorded one year earlier.

Global demand was 1.9 per ceent higher than the previous year reaching a total 8886 kt with an increase in Asia not just enough to balance the declines recorded in Europe and the Americas. US demand fell by 10.6 per cent. Chinese apparent consumption totalled 3860 kt of lead in January to December 2009 which was 725 kt above the comparable period in 2008.

In December 2009, refined lead production was 802.6 kt and consumption was 811.4 kt.

Zinc market records surplus in January to December 2009

The zinc market was in surplus by 207 kt during 2009 which compares with a surplus of 181 kt recorded in the previous year. Reported stocks rose by 306 kt with almost all of the increase recorded at LME warehouses.  LME stocks represented 64 per cent of the global total. The global demand total included a higher than expected apparent demand figure for China. According to Chinese customs data, with monthly totals for most of 2009 reaching record levels it is likely that some of this material is bound for stockpiles and thus the actual global surplus is probably much more than headline figures indicate. Much of the Chinese imports originate from other Asian countries. Exports reported by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan confirm the Chinese imports.

Mine production was, at 11.4 million tonnes, about 1.4 per cent lower than in 2008. Refined production fell by 269 kt to 11.3 million tonnes with EU countries registering a decline of 406 kt. NAFTA output fell by 12 per cent.

World demand was 294 kt lower than in January to December 2008. Chinese apparent demand was 4888 kt which is 44 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In December 2009 slab zinc production was 1055.7 and consumption 1014.6 kt.

Nickel market records small surplus in January to December 2009

The Nickel market was in surplus during January to December 2009 with supply exceeding apparent demand 3 kt. The 2009 figure includes substantial imports recorded by China, some of which is destined for re-stocking purposes and these are likely to be enough to more then compensate for the apparent deficit in the rest of the world. Reported stocks held in the LME were 79.6 kt higher. Refined production for the year totalled 1318 kt and demand was 1315 kt.

Mine production for last year was, at 1369 kt, 8 per cent below the comparable 2008 total.  Refined production was 2.5 per cent below the previous year total with output reductions in Europe and Canada accounting for much of the decline.

World apparent demand was 1.8 per cent higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In December 2009, nickel smelter production was 116.1 kt and consumption was 104.5 kt.

Tin market records surplus in January to December 2009

The tin market recorded a surplus of 12.9 kt during January to December 2009 there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks were unchanged during December and ended the month 15.2 kt higher than at the end of December 2008. Almost all recorded stocks are now held in Asia.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was up by 1.8 kt, compared with January to December 2008. Overall production for the year in China rose by 4.2 per cent with higher activity in November and December wiping out the effects of temporary smelter closures earlier in the year. Apparent demand in China and was 12 per cent higher during the year compared with 2008.

Global tin demand during the January to December 2009 period was 321.2 kt which was 4.7 per cent below the comparable period of 2008. US apparent consumption in 2009 was 3.4 per cent above the 2008 total. Japanese consumption fell by 29 per cent compared with the 2008 total.

Tin mine production was 310.4 kt which was 1.8 per cent below the January to December 2008 total.

Refined production in December 2009 was 31.3 kt and demand was 31.1 kt

Ends --

World Bureau of Metal Statistics: