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CPM Group releases Silver Long-Term Outlook update

New York, January 2013

CPM Group has released the 2013 update to its Silver Long-Term Outlook market study. The report provides an update of CPM Group’s in-depth analysis of global silver mine production, secondary supply, fabrication demand, investment demand, inventory levels, and prices. Each sector is analyzed and discussed in detail with scenarios forecast through 2022. This report is an update to the 2011 full report.

Highlights:

After languishing between $3.50 and $5.50 for most of the time from 1990 through 2002, silver prices then rose to as high as $49 in the first half of 2011. Silver prices have trended lower since then, mostly trading between $26 and $36 since September 2011. While some silver market observers continue to hypothesize that silver prices will head higher, CPM Group identifies several emerging trends in the market that could result in wobbly investment demand over the next decade, which may weigh on prices going forward.

One of the key variables that determine silver prices is investment demand. Investors were net sellers of silver from 1990 through 2006. They have been large net buyers of silver since 2006, with their interest fueled by the series of economic and financial crises to occur since that year. The single most important question facing future silver prices is how much silver investors will want to buy going forward – or whether they might revert to long-term selling as they did only a few years ago. The CPM Group report studies the economic and financial variables that have been driving silver investment demand in recent years and presents an unbiased argument for somewhat weaker silver prices over the projected period as well as a detailed analysis of global and regional economic and financial trends expected to unfold over the coming decade.

There is a substantial amount of silver mine production capacity that potentially could to be added to supply over the next ten years. The extent to which this wave of possible new production comes on stream will depend in the interaction of silver price trends, management of the development programs, and the availability of financing for new projects. The updated report contains details about the new mines expected to begin production over the next ten years.

Higher silver prices and technological innovations such as digital imaging and the shrinking of electronic components have reduced silver use over the past decade. The extent to which these trends are offset by higher unit output in electronics, the emerging solar power industry, and other applications using silver is reviewed carefully in CPM Group’s 10-year projections. The report contains industry analysis of each major source of silver demand and projections for silver demand from each of these sources.

Ends --


The CPM Group Silver Long-Term Outlook is part of a series of long-term studies of precious and specialty metals markets that CPM Group has produced since the 1980s. These studies are used by producers and industrial users for strategic planning and in the preparation of technical reports. In addition, institutional investors and physical traders supplement their internal research with CPM Group’s comprehensive analyses, conclusions, and projections. The reports serve as authoritative reference guides for platinum group metals market statistics. CPM Group sells the reports as stand-alone products, although most clients use the CPM Group reports as parts of broader consulting packages related to the specific metals markets.

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