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Commodity Research and Reports

World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report, Q1 2013

London, 16 May 2013

The latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report, which reports on the period January-March 2013, shows a market driven by diverse global demand, and an appetite for owning gold jewellery that continues to grow. Total jewellery demand was up 12% year-on-year in Q1 2013, driven in the main by Asian markets. Jewellery demand in China was up 19% on the same period last year and stood at a record 185 tonnes(t). Demand in both India and the Middle East was up 15% respectively and in the US, demand showed a significant increase, 6%, for the first time since 2005.

Read more: World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report, Q1 2013

Survey finds investors positioning for China slowdown and low inflation

London, 14 May 2013

Investors are positioning themselves for slower growth in China and prolonged low inflation – sending commodities allocations to a four-year low, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for May. A quarter of the respondents to May’s survey say that a hard landing in China and a commodity collapse is their number one “tail risk”, an increase from 18 percent in April. A net 8 percent of fund managers in Japan, Asia-Pacific Rim and Global Emerging Markets expect China’s economy to weaken over the next 12 months, compared with a net 9 percent saying it would strengthen a month ago.

Read more: Survey finds investors positioning for China slowdown and low inflation

The political economy of structural reform in the BRIC

The BRIC economies, like most other economies in the world, experienced a slowdown in 2011-12. The bears are worrying that this slowdown might contain a significant structural component. These concerns seem somewhat overdone - Deutsche Bank Research.

Read more: The political economy of structural reform in the BRIC

Commodity Swaps: Corporations face rising transaction costs

Stamford, CT: April 2013

A new report, Commodity Swaps: Corporations Face Rising Transaction Costs, from Greenwich Associates concludes that increased transaction costs associated with new regulations on banks and swaps markets could cause companies to reduce hedging activity and assume more risk from direct exposures to energy and other commodities.

Read more: Commodity Swaps: Corporations face rising transaction costs

Global growth to stay at 2012 levels: EIU

London, 19 April 2013

A military conflict between North and South Korea, which inevitably would involve the US, would shred economic confidence in the region and push key parts of the world economy back into recession, says The Economist Intelligence Unit’s latest Global Outlook Report. Although The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) expects Korean tensions to stop well short of war, these political tensions come at a time when key parts of the global economy are struggling to regain momentum. Although the US economy is strengthening and some key emerging markets will grow faster this year than in 2012, a synchronised global upturn is less likely in the next six months. The EIU now expects growth in global economic output to be no higher in 2013 than 2012, although it continues to expect a better showing in 2014.

Read more: Global growth to stay at 2012 levels: EIU

Merchandise exports stagnate in 2012: UNCTAD

Geneva, 17 April 2013

Global merchandise exports in 2012 grew by only 0.2 per cent in value, after having expanded significantly in 2010 and 2011, UNCTAD statistics indicate. Among developing countries, merchandise exports climbed by 3.6 per cent, the organization reported, but much of that improvement was confined to petroleum- and gas-exporting nations. Countries that are primary exporters of commodities other than fuels saw exports drop by 2.54 per cent.

Read more: Merchandise exports stagnate in 2012: UNCTAD

Industrial uses forecast to boost demand for Silver

Washington DC, 14 March 2013

Industrial demand for silver has increased substantially over the past two decades and is expected to soar to a new record level in the coming year. Speaking last week at the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention in Toronto, Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute, said that demand for silver is broadening in many directions. Industry’s widening use of the precious metal is expected to average more than 483 million ounces (Moz.) from 2012 to 2014, a level 53 percent greater than the average annual industrial fabrication demand of 313.4 Moz from 1992-2001.

Read more: Industrial uses forecast to boost demand for Silver

Central bank diversification strategies

London, 14 March 2013

A new report by the World Gold Council, “Central bank diversification strategies – rebalancing from the dollar and the euro”, examines the growing trend of central banks’ actively looking to diversify their reserve portfolios. While the dollar is still the primary global currency, its long-term dominance is less certain.  In response, central banks are reducing allocations to US dollars and euros while increasing purchases of traditional assets such as gold and Japanese yen and new alternatives including Chinese renminbi.

Read more: Central bank diversification strategies

New era in global energy and commodity trading

London, 11 February 2013

The traders’ role in energy and commodities trading is changing rapidly, while physical trading has entered a new era of sophistication and scale. In a newly released and first-time study, Deloitte in Switzerland, the business advisory firm, has analysed the current issues and trends of one of the most important global and Swiss trading sectors.

Read more: New era in global energy and commodity trading

IOSCO: Recommendations for the protection of client assets

London, 8 February 2013

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a final report on Recommendations Regarding the Protection of Client Assets, which seeks to help regulators improve the supervision of intermediaries holding client assets. Recent events such as the Lehman Brothers and MF Global insolvencies have highlighted the importance of client asset protection regimes. In this context, investors are trying to better understand the potential implications of placing their assets with particular intermediaries and in certain jurisdictions. Regulators are seeking to address risks to client assets and determine how to transfer or return client assets in default, resolution or insolvency scenarios.

Read more: IOSCO: Recommendations for the protection of client assets