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Commodity Research and Reports

Global growth to stay at 2012 levels: EIU

London, 19 April 2013

A military conflict between North and South Korea, which inevitably would involve the US, would shred economic confidence in the region and push key parts of the world economy back into recession, says The Economist Intelligence Unit’s latest Global Outlook Report. Although The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) expects Korean tensions to stop well short of war, these political tensions come at a time when key parts of the global economy are struggling to regain momentum. Although the US economy is strengthening and some key emerging markets will grow faster this year than in 2012, a synchronised global upturn is less likely in the next six months. The EIU now expects growth in global economic output to be no higher in 2013 than 2012, although it continues to expect a better showing in 2014.

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Merchandise exports stagnate in 2012: UNCTAD

Geneva, 17 April 2013

Global merchandise exports in 2012 grew by only 0.2 per cent in value, after having expanded significantly in 2010 and 2011, UNCTAD statistics indicate. Among developing countries, merchandise exports climbed by 3.6 per cent, the organization reported, but much of that improvement was confined to petroleum- and gas-exporting nations. Countries that are primary exporters of commodities other than fuels saw exports drop by 2.54 per cent.

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Industrial uses forecast to boost demand for Silver

Washington DC, 14 March 2013

Industrial demand for silver has increased substantially over the past two decades and is expected to soar to a new record level in the coming year. Speaking last week at the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention in Toronto, Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute, said that demand for silver is broadening in many directions. Industry’s widening use of the precious metal is expected to average more than 483 million ounces (Moz.) from 2012 to 2014, a level 53 percent greater than the average annual industrial fabrication demand of 313.4 Moz from 1992-2001.

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Central bank diversification strategies

London, 14 March 2013

A new report by the World Gold Council, “Central bank diversification strategies – rebalancing from the dollar and the euro”, examines the growing trend of central banks’ actively looking to diversify their reserve portfolios. While the dollar is still the primary global currency, its long-term dominance is less certain.  In response, central banks are reducing allocations to US dollars and euros while increasing purchases of traditional assets such as gold and Japanese yen and new alternatives including Chinese renminbi.

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New era in global energy and commodity trading

London, 11 February 2013

The traders’ role in energy and commodities trading is changing rapidly, while physical trading has entered a new era of sophistication and scale. In a newly released and first-time study, Deloitte in Switzerland, the business advisory firm, has analysed the current issues and trends of one of the most important global and Swiss trading sectors.

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IOSCO: Recommendations for the protection of client assets

London, 8 February 2013

The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a final report on Recommendations Regarding the Protection of Client Assets, which seeks to help regulators improve the supervision of intermediaries holding client assets. Recent events such as the Lehman Brothers and MF Global insolvencies have highlighted the importance of client asset protection regimes. In this context, investors are trying to better understand the potential implications of placing their assets with particular intermediaries and in certain jurisdictions. Regulators are seeking to address risks to client assets and determine how to transfer or return client assets in default, resolution or insolvency scenarios.

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Gold Backed Bonds - An Alternative To European Austerity?

London, 26 January 2013

At Davos, George Soros, one of the largest buyers of gold in the world today, warned of currency wars and that “interest rates are going to take a big leap” - probably this year. Bank of America warned of a “bond crash” comparable to 1994 that would trigger a string of upsets across the world. In 1994, the bond crash bankrupted Orange Country, California, and set off the Tequila Crisis in Mexico.

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Investec commodity update and market review

London, 22 January 2013

2013 is set to be another volatile year for miners, particularly for the mid and small cap space according to Investec. Conditions for financing pre-production companies remain very difficult, but large established producers have successfully issued bonds at low rates. They do see the potential for an increasingly positive macro-economic outlook as the year progresses, leading investors to become more willing to take on risk and enabling conditions for the financing of smaller companies to improve.

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Building Resilience in Supply Chains

London, 22 January 2013

Global supply chains and transport networks form the backbone of the global economy, fuelling trade, consumption and economic growth. Disruptions to supply chains can prove costly, as highlighted most recently by Hurricane Sandy. According to research conducted by Accenture, significant supply chain disruptions have been found to cut the share price of impacted companies by 7% on average.

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World More at Risk from Markets and Mother Nature

London, 8 January 2013

Global Risks 2013 report: The world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2013 report, which highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent risks, in a survey of over 1,000 experts and industry leaders, which reflects a slightly more pessimistic outlook overall for the coming 10 years.

Read more: World More at Risk from Markets and Mother Nature