London, October 2010

Macquarie Agri-View: The 2010/11 Cocoa crop year has just begun and our latest global supply/demand fundamental analysis points to the cocoa market moving into a modest surplus after the 2009/10 deficit. The weather has been mostly favourable so far to crop prospects in West Africa.

In anticipation of this, London cocoa futures have fallen 30% since July. However, with forecasts for heavy rains and upcoming elections in Cote d'Ivoire, risks of disease and political unrest leading to supply losses or disruptions remain high and we may need to allow for a risk premium in our price forecasts.

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Macquarie Agri-View: Cocoa

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