Houston, 28 June 2010

Booming North American coal exports to China, driven by the country's insatiable need for steel raw materials, will provide support to freight rates and encourage longer haul journeys in the coming months. Despite a voyage time of 45 days compared with 15 from Australia, China's coking coal imports from the U.S. rose 4,800 percent in January-May 2010 from the same period last year and 85 percent from Canada, official Chinese import data shows. "This is a trade that did not exist in this quantity a year ago," Derek Langston, a director with SSY Consultancy and Research, said. North American producers able to sell their coal as either thermal or coking coal have switched their marketing efforts to China, away from the slumping domestic and European markets.

"This year the Chinese market had the capacity to start taking the high-sulphur metallurgical coal that the usual buyers weren't taking," a major U.S. coal trader said.

"Now the high-sulphur thermal coal, which used to go to European power plants, is moving to China from Baltimore as coking coal. Practically half the year is gone and there have been very few sales to Europe." Coal with a sulphur content of 1.5-2 percent which was traditionally sold to European utilities has become acceptable this year to Chinese power and steel end-users, traders said.

High-energy U.S. steam coal used for blending with coking coal is trading at 900-1,000 yuan/tonne CIF, a Beijing trader said. Shipping analysts say growth in U.S. coal exports to Asia could help bolster rates especially for smaller panamax vessels.

"The increase in shipments from the U.S east coast to Far East Asia is one very good example of how the panamax fleet is being used less efficiently than it was last year and such inefficiency is supportive of rates," SSY's Langston said. Average earnings for panamaxes in the year to date have reached around $30,500 per day from $19,300 for the whole of 2009.

"If thermal coal exports from the U.S. west coast to Asia ultimately find a steady place in the market, freight rates will likely receive additional support due to the long-haul nature of these exports," Jeffrey Landsberg, senior analyst with dry bulk consultants Commodore Research, said.

China Imports Surge

China has been the salvation of coal producers since last October when thermal and coking coal imports began to surge. American producers have been quick to focus on the Chinese market where they can get over $200 a tonne for coking coal - a healthy margin against cash costs of $80 per tonne.

China's official customs figures show a huge rise in North American imports during 2010 with coking coal from the U.S. and Canada together accounting for 2.7 million tonnes out of total imports of 19 million tonnes in Jan-May. U.S. metallurgical coal exports are likely to be in excess of 50 million tonnes in 2010, up from around 38 million in 2008, according to the U.S. National Mining Association.

Consol , the U.S.'s largest producer of bituminous coal, is actively chasing Chinese business, coal players say. "It's extremely profitable for Consol which has sold its high-sulphur thermal coal at more than $150 a tonne to China - more than twice what it could get in Europe at netback prices to API2," the U.S. coal trader said.

Producers such as Consol would make a loss of at least $10 a tonne if they tried to sell into Europe at current CIF ARA or API2 prices of $90 a tonne, utilities and traders said. This leaves American producers dependent upon the domestic market and Asia.

Canada has also seized the opportunity offered by China's continued steel boom. Around 2 million tonnes of Canadian coal including 1.2 million of coking coal went to China in Jan-May, a rise of 90 percent from last year. The majority of shipments from the U.S. to Asia have been using panamax vessels, which have a capacity of around 60,000 and 80,000 deadweight tonnes (dwt).

Coal capesizes, the largest class of dry bulk vessels with a capacity above 100,000 dwt, have been used to a lesser extent due to loading restrictions at East Coast U.S terminals. During the past two months capesize cargoes have partly loaded in the U.S. and then filled up at Canadian ports.

Around 500,000 tonnes of coking coal each from the U.S. and Canada were shipped to China in May alone, import figures show.

"The fully laden capesize vessels will then be able to sail to Asia and deliver full cargoes, allowing Asian coking coal importers to take greater advantage of economies of scale," Commodore's Landsberg said.

"This development will likely increase demand for U.S. coking coal and will help support capesize freight rates."

Ends --

By Jonathan Saul and Jackie Cowhig, Reuters - for Commodities Now