Washington, 11 May 2010

EIA released its U.S. monthly projections through December 2011. Highlights for this month’s Outlook include: EIA projects U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.0 percent and world real oil-consumption-weighted GDP will increase by 3.6 percent in 2010, both of which are 0.2 percent higher than in the previous Outlook.  The 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is at 2.9 percent and 3.7 percent for the United States and the world, respectively. The more optimistic economic growth forecasts lead to an increase of about $2 per barrel in EIA’s projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices compared with the prior Outlook.  EIA expects WTI prices to average about $84 per barrel during the second half of this year, rising to $87 by the end of next year.

To date, energy production, shipments, and prices have not been significantly affected by the oil spill following the April 20 explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig and its subsequent loss in the Gulf of Mexico, 50 miles off the Louisiana coast.  EIA and other offices in the Department of Energy are closely monitoring the situation and its effects on the energy sector.

EIA forecasts that regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices will average $2.94 per gallon during this summer's driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.44 per gallon last summer.  The summer gasoline price forecast is up very slightly ($0.02) from last month.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $4.48 per million Btu (MMBtu) this year (up $0.04 per MMBtu from last month's forecast), a $0.53-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average.  EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $5.34 per MMBtu in 2011.

The annual average residential electricity price changes only moderately over the forecast period, averaging 11.6 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2010, up from 11.5 cents per kWh in 2009, and then rising to 11.9 cents per kWh in 2011.

Estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 7.0 percent in 2009, are expected to increase by 0.6 percent and 1.6 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, as economic growth spurs higher energy consumption.

Ends --

www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html