Washington, April 2010

Highlights for this month’s Outlook include: EIA’s projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices have changed very little over the last five Outlooks even as spot crude oil prices continue to fluctuate on a daily basis.  EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less than $81 per barrel for 2010 as a whole, and $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2011. • EIA forecasts that regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices will average $2.92 per gallon during this summer's driving season (the period between April 1 and September 30), up from $2.44 per gallon last summer.  The forecast has the annual average regular grade retail gasoline price increasing from $2.35 per gallon in 2009 to $2.84 in 2010 and to $2.96 in 2011, primarily because of projected rising crude oil prices.  Average U.S. pump prices for regular gasoline are likely to exceed $3 per gallon at times during the driving season, and already exceed $3 per gallon in some areas.  Projected annual average retail diesel fuel prices are forecast at $2.95 and $3.12 per gallon in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

• EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $4.44 per million Btu (MMBtu) this year, a $0.49-per-MMBtu increase over the 2009 average, but a significant downward revision from the $5.17 per MMBtu projected in last month’s Outlook.  The price outlook is lower primarily because of an average 2 billion cubic feet per day ( Bcf/d) upward revision to the 2010 domestic natural gas production forecast.

• The annual average residential electricity price changes only slightly over the forecast period, averaging 11.5 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in both 2009 and 2010 and then rising to 11.7 cents per kWh in 2011.

• Estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, which declined by 6.6 percent in 2009, increase by 2.1 percent and 1.1 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, as economic growth fuels higher energy consumption.

Ends --

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