London, 17 October 2011

In the April edition of its new monthly industry review, China Steel Insight, MEPS revealed that steel production, in 2010, in the world’s largest producing nation was under-reported. Detailed investigation by the company put the figure at 45 million tonnes of crude steel (approximately 40 million tonnes of finished steel). Further analysis by MEPS suggests that this under-reporting has continued into 2011.

In the August edition of ‘China Steel Insight’, MEPS estimates crude steel output in the first six months of this year at 363 million tonnes. This compares with 353 million tonnes from the official NBS statistics. The total under-reporting for the year is predicted to be 28 million tonnes. However, the reasons for the non disclosure of output are changing. Most of it is confined to the smaller producers of rebar used in construction. This points to a shift in the motives for the failure by some companies to report their output.

It has now been acknowledged by Worldsteel, the steel-makers’ Association, that the 2010 figures were under-reported. Worldsteel has made an upward revision of apparent steel use in China, last year, by 4 percent.

MEPS latest estimate for apparent consumption of finished steel in 2011 is 677 million tonnes – up 10 percent from the year earlier figure. This is above the Worldsteel number but MEPS assumes further under-reporting of crude steel output this year.

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Source: MEPS Report China Steel Insight