London, 21 August 2009 

Global Steel production in the first seven months of this year was 664 million tonnes – down almost 20% on the equivalent period in 2008, according to World Steel Association. A marked upturn was recorded in July, down by just 11% on the previous year at 106 million tonnes. 

Preliminary analysis by MEPS (International) Ltd suggests that the out turn for 2009 could reach 1,190 million tonnes if the July improvement continues. This equates to a year on year reduction of approximately 10% – a figure substantially above the popular forecast of a decline of 14/15% by most pundits. The MEPS previous forecast in World Steel Outlook - Quarter two was 1165 million tonnes- a reduction of 12%.

The July outturn was boosted by strong levels of output in China may not be sustainable over the full year. However, inventory rebuilding has commenced in most of the industrialised nations of the world. The global economic outlook is improving with several countries moving out of recession.

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