London, 18 November 2009 

From the WBMS: The World Bureau of Metal Statistics is the data resource of first resort for anyone involved with the global metals industry. 

Primary Aluminium 

The calculated market surplus for primary aluminium for January to September 2009 was 1416 kt which compares with a surplus of 977 kt registered in the same nine months of 2008. Demand for primary aluminium was 25.77 million tonnes, 2998 kt less then the equivalent total for the first nine months of 2008. Production fell by 2559 kt to 27.19 million tonnes compared with the same period in 2008. Total reported stocks fell slightly in September but ended the month at just over 6.2 million tons, equivalent to about 61 days’ demand.  Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo fell slightly during September to 4720.8 kt. Global producer stocks fell during September to 1.191 million tonnes. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production in the first nine months of the year fell by 8.6 per cent compared with 2008. Chinese output fell by 1068 kt and currently accounts for over 33 per cent of the world production total. China remained a net importer of unwrought aluminium with imports exceeding exports by 1402 kt. During the whole of the 2008 calendar year, Chinese net exports totalled 581 kt.

Production in the EU27 fell by 497 kt and NAFTA output fell by a 784 kt. EU27 demand was 37 per cent below the January to September 2008 period. Global demand fell by 10.4 per cent to 25.77 million tonnes.

In September, primary aluminium production was 3187.8 kt and consumption was 3123.5 kt.  

Copper market records smaller deficit in January to September 2009

The copper market recorded a deficit of 58 kt In January to September 2009 which compares with a surplus of 27 kt in the same months of 2008. Reported stocks rose during September and were 71.1 kt higher than in December 2008. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to September was 11.71 million tonnes which was 2.3 per cent higher than in the same months of 2008. Refined production rose by 0.2 per cent to 13.8 million tonnes. Chinese output rose by 152.9 kt.  Bulgarian, Zambian and Chilean output were jointly 349 kt higher than the previous year but output in Japan, Canada and Germany fell by a total of 227.7 kt.

Global consumption in the first nine months of 2009 was 13.87 million tonnes which was fractionally higher than the same period of the previous year. Chinese apparent consumption increased by 47 per cent to 5472 kt from 3725 kt in the previous year. However, this increase masks a build up of unreported stocks since the output of semi manufactures was reported to be only 16.67 per cent higher than last year. EU27 demand was, at 2210 kt, 25.3 per cent below the January to September 2008 total.

In September 2009, refined copper production was 1591.0 kt and consumption was 1589.9 kt.  

Lead market records small surplus in January to September 2009

The lead market was in surplus by 24 kt which compares with a deficit of 73 kt recorded in January to September 2008. Total stocks at the end of September were 72 kt higher than at the end of 2008. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

Lead mine production was 2940 kt with Chinese output dominating the global supply. Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 1.3 per cent higher than the equivalent figure recorded one year earlier.

Global demand was fractionally lower than the previous year reaching a total 6548 kt with an increase in Asia not quite enough to balance the 19 per cent decline in Europe. US demand also fell by 14.7 per cent. Chinese apparent consumption totalled 2908 kt of lead in January to September 2009 which was 549 kt above the comparable period in 2008.

In September 2009, refined lead production was 770.1 kt and consumption was 766.6 kt. 

Zinc market records surplus in January to September 2009

The zinc market was in surplus by 75 kt during January to September 2009 which compares with a surplus of 59 kt recorded in the same period one year earlier. Reported stocks rose by 208 kt with almost all of the increase recorded at LME warehouses.  LME stocks represented 59 per cent of the global total. The global demand total included a higher than expected apparent demand figure for China. According to Chinese customs data, imports for each of the latest eight months were the highest monthly totals on record and it is likely that some of this material is bound for stockpiles and thus the actual global surplus is probably much more than headline figures indicate. Much of the Chinese imports originate from other Asian countries. Exports reported by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan confirm the Chinese imports.

Mine production was, at 8.54 million tonnes, about 5 per cent lower than the first nine months of 2008. Refined production fell by 434 kt to 8.29 million tonnes with EU countries registering a decline of 370 kt. NAFTA output fell by 10.7 per cent.

World demand was 449 kt lower than in January to September 2008. Chinese apparent demand was 3653 kt which is 45 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In September 2009 slab zinc production was 994.0 and consumption 979.5 kt.   

Nickel market records deficit in January to September 2009

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to September 2009 with apparent demand exceeding supply by 21 kt. This The 2008 figure includes substantial imports recorded by China, some of which is destined for re-stocking purposes and these are likely to be enough to more then compensate for the deficit in the rest of the world. Reported stocks held in the LME were 42.1 kt higher. Refined production for the first nine months of the year totalled 984.4 kt and demand was 1005.6 kt.

Mine production in January to September 2009 was, at 1045.7 kt, 7 per cent below the comparable 2008 total.  Refined production was 3.4 per cent below the previous year total with output reductions in Japan accounting for much of the decline.

World demand was 0.3 per cent lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In September 2009, nickel smelter production was 113.0 kt and consumption was 119.4 kt.  

Tin market records bigger surplus in January to September 2009

The tin market recorded a surplus of 15.4 kt during January to September 2009 there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose again in September and were 13.9 kt higher than at the end of December 2008. Almost all recorded stocks are now held in Asia.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 3.2 kt, compared with January to September 2008. For the first nine months of the year overall production in China fell by 1.3 per cent due to temporary smelter closures earlier in the year. Apparent demand in China and was 9.8 per cent higher during January to September 2009 compared with the first nine months of 2008.

Global tin demand during the January to September 2009 period was 230.2 kt which was 9 per cent below the comparable period of 2008. US apparent consumption in the first nine months was 6 per cent above the same period of 2008. Japanese consumption fell by 36 per cent compared with the 2008 total.

Tin mine production was 227.7 kt which was 2.8 per cent below the January to September 2008 total. 

Refined production in September 2009 was 28.2 kt and demand was 24.8 kt

Ends -- 

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