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LSE and TMX bet on commodities super-cycle

London, 9 February 2011

A mixture of approval, resignation and concern rippled through Canada’s investment community on Wednesday over the proposed merger of the London Stock Exchange and TMX Group, owner of the Toronto and Montreal exchanges. TMX has been a kingpin in the drive by Canada’s banking, legal and mining communities to promote Toronto as a global centre for natural resource financing. The exchange has attracted dozens of listings from US, Chinese, Latin American and Australian companies, particularly in the mining sector.

Xavier Rolet, LSE chief executive, and Thomas Kloet, his counterpart at TMX, are betting that the commodities super-cycle, driven by the industrialisation and urbanisation of emerging countries such as China and India, will continue, prompting new oil, mining and agribusiness to tap the capital market.

The surge in energy, metals and agricultural commodities prices has pushed up the value of the natural resources sector in global exchanges. Oil, gas and mining companies account for nearly 13 per cent of the global FTSE All-World Index, up from less than 6 per cent in 2000.

Although the industry’s consensus is that the super-cycle is here to stay, executives say the centre of gravity of commodities demand is moving east and with it companies seeking access to capital markets. Rusal, the world’s largest aluminium producer, and Vale, the top iron ore miner, recently listed shares in Hong Kong.

Toronto has suffered a setback in natural resources as one big domestic player after another has fallen under foreign control. Recent casualties include Alcan, the aluminium group, acquired by Rio Tinto, and Inco and Falconbridge, two big nickel producers, now controlled by Vale and Xstrata, respectively.

John Turner, global mining head at Fasken Martineau, a Toronto law firm, said that the merger could, however, help the Canadian city turn the tide.

Natural resources groups listed in Toronto, he said, have been under pressure from investors to migrate to London or New York as their market value grows. “Overall it’s a good thing for the mining companies”, he added.

The proposed deal has set off a debate similar to the one that erupted last autumn when BHP Billiton, the Anglo-Australian mining group, bid for PotashCorp of Saskatchewan, the world’s biggest producer of the food nutrient. Canada’s federal government rejected BHP’s proposal on the grounds that it did not meet the “net benefit” test required for big foreign investments under the Investment Canada Act.

Tony Clement, industry minister, said on Wednesday that he “will look at how the Investment Canada Act applies” to the TMX deal. The provincial governments of Ontario and Quebec, home to the Toronto and Montreal exchanges respectively, will also express views.

Ends --


By Bernard Simon in Toronto and Javier Blas in London - Financial Times

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