Beijing, 21 Janaury 2010

China's year of stockpiling, stimulus and steelmaking ended in a strong roster of commodity imports and output in December, but Beijing's recent moves to rein in growth suggest 2010 could be a more sedate year.

Implied demand for base metals surged, with copper up almost 40 percent and nickel 45 percent nickel, while implied oil demand in 2009 rose 6.3 percent on the year to 7.72 million bpd, as a surprisingly cold winter pumped up demand for fuels and power.

Power generation, oil refining, crude oil imports and coal imports all hit a record in December, cementing 2009's record as a year when China's relentless appetite for energy reached new highs, powered by an economy that shrugged off the economic blues rife in its main export markets.

But an acceleration in consumer inflation to 1.9 percent in the 12 months to December from November's 0.6 percent figure is likely to reinforce worries about possible economic overheating on the back of a renewed surge in bank lending. And Beijing is responding with higher short-term bond yields and bank reserve requirements in a bid to draw some liquidity out of the market and keep the economy from bubbling over.

"The worry is the economy is growing too strongly," said Nirrav Sharma of Singapore based trading house GSTeelent. "China is walking a bit of a tightrope. If they fall off and grow too slowly it might affect national stability and they may face the same if things get too hot."

China's economy got back into gear in the fourth quarter of the year, with gross domestic product up 10.7 percent between October and December, versus a year earlier, below market forecasts of 10.9 percent, but up sharply from a revised 9.1 percent in the third quarter.

Output of iron ore and coke, ingredients for China's vast steel industry, also hit monthly records, as did the volume of steel products the country turned out.

Crude steel production of 47.7 million tonnes remained below the highs seen last August and October, but full-year output rose 13.5 percent to 567.8 million tonnes, about ten times more than production in the United States, India or Russia.

That massive surge of steel output, despite a collapse in world markets, has driven Chinese demand for imports of steel-related commodities such as coking coal, nickel and zinc.

Imports of iron ore rose 42 percent in the year to 627.8 million tonnes, while zinc imports, used as an anti-corrosive coating for steel, rose 265 percent and stainless steelmaking ingredient nickel inflows more than doubles.

But China's manufacturing recovery has also triggered accusations it is dumping unwanted products in the U.S. market and elsewhere. Supporters of China's steel boom point to a vibrant domestic economy that grew by 8.7 percent last year, helped by a $585 billion stimulus and loose credit that pumped up spending on cars and construction.

The oil refining boom has shown similar signs of running ahead of domestic demand: China turned into a net exporter of oil products in December as shipments of gasoline and kerosene skyrocketed to 980,000 tonnes.

And the same may be true in aluminium, where output has surged to record levels in spite of China's comparative disadvantage as a producer because of its limited ability to generate cheap power. But China was still a net importer of the metal, to the tune of 15,000 tonnes in December.

But sceptics worry about domestic oversupply. With no accurate data on the size of China's stockpiles of steel products and other commodities, measuring real demand remains a murky science.

"China imported 418,000 tonnes of copper at very high prices in December. Is China going long commodities to divert away from the dollar or are they really consuming material?" said a London-based metals trader. It has long been suspected that China is worried about exposure to the U.S. dollar created by its $2.4 trillion in foreign reserves.

In 2008, Beijing transferred $200 billion from the foreign exchange reserves to sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp as part of efforts to seek higher returns.

"Making more efficient and diversified use of foreign exchange reserves is an important issue for China. We will explore this issue further this year," said Guan Tao, head of the international balance of payment department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Ends --

By Tom Miles and Nick Trevethan, Reuters