London, 25 December 2009

Seeking Alpha: We thought that ending on a light note would be the best tribute to an event-heavy year 2009. Looking back, this was an year full of drama and surprise; disappointment for some, but smiles for most. With economic recovery as the “theme”, the story unfolded gradually, as most of us stayed in denial mode, but cheered in the end.

For us, this looked like a movie – which gradually engrosses us in a fiction far from reality – but soon engages us deep inside it, while loving its characters, its twists and turns, making most of us believe it to be real. With this in mind we thought to give away bespoke awards to actors, producers, technicians and spot boys who helped in making a historical and memorable movie in the sphere of commodities for us this year.

Technical awards: These awards are for extra-ordinary technical work which surpassed expectations by a big margin.

Technical break-out award

The award goes to Gold for successfully breaking above bullish consolidation triangle at 950 and rising 26% in 3 months. The direction may have been known to most, but the pace of move was unimaginable and a new record for this commodity. We found it worth a round of applause.

Best fight master of the year

For fighting back-on-track a limping economy and profusely bleeding banking system - despite criticism from all corners and grilling congress testimonies - the award goes to Ben Bernanke. The fighter has proved himself not only his deeds but also by justifying more powers to US Fed and proving critics of his re-election wrong. Applause again!

Best spot boys of the year

With unanimous decision this award goes to the Strategic Reserve Bureau of China and Chinese pig breeders for well timed physical “spot” buying of base metals in large quantities. Credits to them for not selling those back despite more than 100% rise in metal prices. We didn’t need any other nomination in this category.

Movie Awards: These awards are for movies (sequence of events) that entertained us this year and would remain in our memories for a long time.

Best thriller of the year

A product, whose price movement made traders bang desks, more than 100% volatility made onlookers drop their jaws and whose trend defied rest of the complex. The award goes to Natural Gas for 60% drop in prices in a year when most of the commodities recovered more than 100% from lows. Natural gas showed a 30-40% one month contango near its lows – a record for any commodity.

Best drama of the year

This award is for an event that surprised the world when it arose and raised expectations about its likely large impact. However, it got quickly concluded as “non-event” thus leaving a trail of drama. We found “Rio spy case” in China as a right fit in this category; it raised speculation of broadening investigation and likely large influence on Iron ore industry. However the award is finally won by “Dubai Standstill” which shook the markets for a few hours sending steep correction, followed by rapid recovery.

Best romantic movie of the year

A movie displaying a fresh and lovely relationship, an absolutely new bond that may not have gotten popular acceptability initially, but was greeted eventually; this award goes to the relationship between trend of exchange inventories and prices of base metals – an entirely refreshing duo which moved together most of this year and continue to.

Much awaited movie (yet) under production

A movie which came on floor with much hype, signed top rated actors and “villains” and was produced by the richest production house. This award goes to “position limit” imposition on commodity trades envisaged by US Treasury which was promised to be in theatres in Autumn, but missed not only the deadline but also the original plot.

Popular Awards: These awards are coveted to those who got accolades and appreciation not only from the trading fraternity but also from viewers across the globe.

Hit formula of the year

“Cornering the market” has been used as tactic in the commodity space from time to time; illiquid counters are best place for such games. However, such a big scale was never reached earlier. The award for Hit formula of the year goes to “Inventory Financing” of Aluminium and Zinc for creating appropriate plot for bulls to play their games despite ample of inventories. This hit formula is being replicated in Oil Distillates recently.

Best comeback of the year

For making a comeback by creating a new wave and drawing classes and masses together, this award goes to US Dollar which has risen in popularity rapidly in recent days. Recovering its losses of 3 months in 2 weeks, making shorts cut their positions by 40% in Dec09 and popular demand sending ETFs issuers rushing for new issuances, the award is well deserved, we believe.

Best actor in a heroic role

This award is for one who defied conventional wisdom in getting its presence felt and making the world bow to its “heroic” acts. The award goes to Program trading machines in trading against common belief, pumping money continuously, carefully creating chart patterns and eventually making the world stand-up and take notice.

Best actor in a negative role

For rising to popularity with negative thoughts last year and gaining even more popularity this year, propounding new theories (“Dollar carry trade”), telling us different possible shapes of recovery (“W” and “U”), raising voice against popular themes (“Gold”) and above all holding his negative views and continuing to hog limelight despite proven wrong by the market (so far), the award goes to Nouriel Roubini.

Hall of Fame award

This award is for one who gained, retained and further gained popularity across nationalities - from common men to central banks. A product which has defied economic cycles and trend in the rest of the complex - a masterpiece, too shiny to ignore. The award goes to Gold for rising 7 years in a row and yet rising faster than ever, turning old sellers (central banks) into buyers, gaining popularity from new places (China turning into the largest importer), attracting renowned fund managers (John Paulson) launch dedicated funds and alluring physical demand despite record rises.

Best production house

Best and the largest. The award goes to China for rapidly rising its production and production capacity at a time when the rest of the world was shrinking. Raising its global share in Steel from 35% last year to 51%, in Zinc from 30% last year to 50% in Q3, adding new commercial buildings in Shanghai despite a reported 50% non-occupancy, producing a rapid turnaround that the world could never believe and above all giving bulls the plot to make a movie on.

Standing ovation please!

Ends --

By Sandeep Daga, December 25, 2009, Seeking Alpha