London, 13 September 2011

Energy experts are seriously concerned about the world's capacity to cut carbon emissions over the coming decades, according to a new report published today by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Between 1990 and 2010, China’s energy consumption rose by 149% and India’s increased by 116%. As a result, carbon emissions surged in both countries, with China's emissions increasing by 265% between 1990 and 2007 and India's increasing by 233% over the same period. Despite efforts to curb emissions, experts think this pattern will persist for decades.

Pierre Noël, Senior Research Associate at the University of Cambridge's Electricity Policy Research Group, warned that: "Without a quick and dramatic fall in the cost of carbon-free sources of electricity and heat in the years to come, the rise of the emerging world, especially energy and carbon intensive Asia, will lead to a steady increase in global CO2 emissions way beyond 2030."

Stephen Lincoln, of the University of Adelaide, posed a similar scenario: "A total of 80% of world primary energy comes from fossil fuels…. The much heralded wind, solar, wave, tidal and geothermal technologies together contribute only about 1%. On this basis, fossil fuels will dominate energy supply for some time to come and carbon dioxide emissions will grow from the current level of 30bn tonnes per year unless innovative action is taken."

However, Lin Boqiang, Director of the China Centre for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, stated the belief that, in a trade-off between carbon reduction and growth, the Chinese government will choose the latter: "The Chinese government is committed to reducing carbon emissions because it wants to be seen as a responsible member of the international community. However, maintaining social stability is the policy priority that trumps all others in China—and that means sustaining economic growth."

Key findings from an Economist Intelligence Unit survey conducted as part of the research included the following:

- 92% of respondents think there will be an increase in real energy prices up to 2050.

- Only 5% think that will be an international climate change deal in the next five years, and 16% do not think a meaningful deal will ever be reached.

- 67% expect an increase in energy-related military conflicts over the next 40 years.

- But only 12% think governments should consider military action as a way of securing energy supplies.

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The global energy conversation: Transitions from West to East is available free to download HERE