London, 1 April 2010

Analysts at Point Carbon reckon EU ETS emissions fell 11 per cent in 2009 versus 2008: The Oslo-based team has revised their emissions forecast for the bloc’s cap-and-trade scheme based on incomplete verified data published by the European commission today. They reckon the installations covered by the ETS emitted 1.887 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2009, barely changed from the analysts’ previous estimate of 1.888 billion tonnes which was published earlier this month.

The forecast represents a reduction in emissions of 233 million tonnes against the verified total in 2008 of 2.120 billion tonnes.

"The data came out as we expected, showing that emissions dropped significantly last year due to the downturn,” said Kjersti Ulset, head of European carbon analysis at Point Carbon.

Ulset said the data published by the commission today represents around 90 per cent of the emissions in the scheme.

Lowered Expectations

The EU data came in lower that some analysts had been expecting and several that Point Carbon News spoke to were expecting to lower their forecasts for 2009 emissions.

Trevor Sikorski, an analyst with Barclays Capital, gave a first estimate that the EU data indicated an overall emission figure of 1.880 billion tonnes in 2009, around 17 million tonnes below his previous projection.

“(The EU data) reflects the impact of the recession on output, and the increasing move in power towards gas and other forms of low carbon generation,” Sikorski said in a note.

Six countries covered by the cap-and-trade system have still to report their data: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Malta, Portugal and Norway.

Reporting levels were also low among installations in the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Slovakia, Ulset added.

Earlier today, the commission published data from 9,866 installations covered by the scheme, which showed an 11.2 per cent drop on pollution levels for those locations in 2008. The EU’s central carbon registry shows that over 1,400 installations have yet to report 2009 data. Over 1,100 accounts are listed as closed, suggesting that these installations will not be reporting data for this year. 

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