Oslo, 30 March 2010

Impact of downturn on European carbon emissions greater than last year, predicts Point Carbon. The data is due to be published on 1 April. If the data is released later, as has happened in the past, then Point Carbon will be available for comment as soon as the data is released and a press release will be issued then.

Although not all EU countries will have met Wednesday’s deadline (31 March, 2010) for submitting their 2009 emissions data, all those with functional registries should have complied, providing an almost-complete assessment of the emission trading scheme’s emissions for 2009 and indicating to what extent the economic downturn has impacted emissions.

Point Carbon predicts that the data will confirm that the economic downturn has had an even greater impact on industrial production and power demand than last year. Point Carbon estimates that 2009 emissions will be down by roughly 11%, to 1,869 Mt, compared with 2008’s figures. Last year the economic slump resulted in a 6% reduction in emissions compared to 2008. Emissions from industry look likely to see the most significant reduction, of about 17% compared to 2008, followed by the Power and heat sector, with an estimated reduction of 7%, due to significantly lower industrial production and a resulting fall in demand for power through 2009. Point Carbon also predicts that the verified emissions data will indicate that production decreased strongly last year in sectors that only saw minor reductions in production the year before.

If the data released on 1 April contradicts this estimate then this could impact the market significantly.

According to Kjersti Ulset, “We believe that the emissions data will confirm that 2009 was a year of almost unprecedented economic downturn in Europe and most of the world. The fact that we predict that emissions will be significantly lower in sectors that last year saw only minor reductions suggests that the slump has deepened and widened considerably over the past twelve months”.

Ulset added that “forecasting emissions this year is more uncertain than usual as the effect of such a massive downturn on emissions is unchartered territory. It is, for instance, unclear whether the relationship between production and emissions is the same in a growing industry sector as it is in a massively decreasing, in some cases even collapsing, one, so from this perspective the verified data will provide a unique insight into the relationship between downturns and emissions”.

1 April will see the European Commission release the verified emissions data per installation. The aggregate information will only be made available by the Commission in the middle of May. Assuming the timetable does not slip then Point Carbon will be able to offer their aggregate data on 1 April and interviews can be arranged beforehand (see details below).

As each year more verified data is issued, future predictions and forecasts can be made with more certainty, providing an important tool for the future development of the emissions market in its second phase.

Ends --

Connection of the CITL and Member State registries with the UNFCCC International Transaction Log (ITL) was completed on 16 October 2008.

To see the information released by the Commission, go to:

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/citl_en.htm