Copenhagen, 16 december 2009 

No doubt, the UNFCCC process has reached a level of complexity that is hard to reconcile with public understanding of the issue and the urgency of finding a solution. It was Denmark’s main motivation for hosting COP 15, according to COP President Hedegaard, to make the negotiating process more effective, transparent and inclusive. 

However, the numerous procedural suspensions and escalations that we have observed in Copenhagen over the last few days have illustrated that striking the necessary balance is not easy when it comes to down to deciding which parties are to participate in informal discussions, and which agenda issues deserve to be debated in the big plenary instead of closed door meetings. And despite yesterday’s latest fall-out, Hedegaard and her team were commended for their diplomatic skills today with Yvo de Boer claiming that COP 15 is the most transparent climate summit he has ever attended. Hedegaard explained that an important part of the Danish strategy to facilitate progress is to involve high-level politicians as early on in the talks as possible to ensure that a political agreement will be reached and that process will not get lost in technicalities. Ministers were therefore encouraged by the Danish host to arrive in Copenhagen early to kick-start high-level talks today before these sessions were scheduled to start. Indeed a smart move because there is still substantialwork to do, and ministers will have to overcome five main obstacles to a Copenhagen agreement – specification of developed country mitigation targets, definition of mitigation actions of developing countries, securing financing for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, the treatment of bunker fuels, and the recognition of special circumstances of countries relating to mitigation. Most activities have taken place behind the scenes today with all working groups being busy to draft their final reports to the ministers tomorrow morning. 

Regarding developing country actions, issues surrounding the monitoring of developing countries’ national abatement have become one of the most contentious issues in the informal consultations over the weekend. The Bali Action Plan had introduced the idea of matching the implementation of domestic activities in developing countries with the required financial and technological support from industrialised parties. To make actions on comparable it is crucial that performances by both sides are measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV). Finding appropriate definitions for MRV criteria and establishing reliable processes for ensuring the actual implementation of developing countries’ voluntary pledges is therefore a crucial concern of developed countries, who increasingly push for major emerging economies to take a more active role in a new global agreement. Todd Stern, chief US negotiator, as well as German Chancellor Merkel and UK Climate and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband have emphasised the importance of the issue. Whilst China today reiterated its concern that developed parties are placing unjustified demands on developing countries to engage in mitigation, India has set a positive example today signalling its willingness to cooperate by presenting a plan to produce monitoring and verification reports every second year including different procedures following UNFCCC guidelines.

Mixed results can be reported on progress made today regarding the financing side of a Copenhagen deal. A prompt climate aid program to compensate poor countries for the adverse impacts of climate change including annual cash support of 10 billion dollars until 2012 seems well on its way with contributions fixed by the EU and Japan, who together have pledged more than two thirds of the required sum. Progress was also made regarding the financing of technology transfer to developing countries with today’s announcement that major industrialised countries will launch a new clean technology fund with a budget of some 350 million dollars over the next five years. While the US will contribute 85 million dollars, the remainder will be provided by Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland and others. The fund will focus its support on the promotion of technology cooperation, including the provision of solar power to rural populations. Furthermore, there is talk about setting up a pool for low carbon technology rights under the UNFCCC to enable royalty free access for developing countries. However, it depends on the level of optimism, whether to interpret these initiatives as a sign of good will and engagement on the side of recession-hit governments of industrialised parties, or whether they should be seen as strategically thrown-in "deal sweeteners" intended to quiet developing countries' calls for much larger commitments. Most importantly, the key element in the financial equation of a Copenhagen agreement - the architecture and scope of a long-term financing mechanism for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries - is at the same time its most contentious and therefore likely to remain on the agenda for the heads of state to discuss on Friday. COP President Hedegaard pointed out today that negotiating parties still have to develop innovative ideas to tap additional funding sources as developed countries have so far been hesitant to commit to concrete numbers.

With five crunch issues still on the agenda, ministers will now face unprecedented pressure to draft a conclusion that they feel comfortable presenting to their seniors who will take the negotiating lead in only 48 hours. Never before have so many heads of state announced their attendance at a UNFCCC summit, showing that despite all the delays, backlashes and political power plays, significant progress that has been made under the UNFCCC to make climate change an important issue in international politics. In fact, Hedegaard said candidly today that if someone had told her at COP 13 in Bali that only two years later the global summit in Copenhagen would have top priority on the agenda of 130 world leaders she would not have believed it.

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