Copenhagen, 15 December 2009 

The second week of negotiations in Copenhagen started off on the wrong foot with the suspension of this morning’s informal talks due to yet another protest walk-out by developing countries. The African group and other developing parties saw their interests being sidelined in the plans presented by the President of the Conference,Danish Minister Connie Hedegaard, to overcome the key deadlocks in the negotiations. 

Developing countries went as far as to accuse the Danish host of purposefully neglecting the discussion on new emission reduction targets for industrialised countries under the Kyoto Protocol and consider this “undemocratic” behaviour as a sign of rich parties’ intentions to “kill” the Protocol and broker a new single agreement behind the back of developing world. Though the session resumed in the early afternoon, the incident once more indicates the level of distrust characterising the interactions between the various regional blocs. 

The future of the Kyoto Protocol has become a key issue in the Copenhagen talks. In a press conference following today’s incidents, representatives of the African groups emphasised that they will reject every new agreement that does not build on the basis of the Kyoto Protocol as it would be disastrous to give up on the only legally binding instrument in place to curb global emissions. UK Climate Secretary Ed Miliband on the other hand said in a press meeting today, that simply including new target commitments by developed countries into the Kyoto structure would be “irresponsible for the climate”, as this option would necessarily leave the world’s two largest emitters out on the observer stands. A fear of developed countries is that the US, who never ratified the Kyoto Protocol and does not signal willingness to do so in the near future, could not be committed to taking on ambitious targets if only included through a weaker complementary agreement under the Convention. That is why the EU and Japan have expressed their support for merging the two negotiating tracks under the Kyoto Protocol and the under the Convention into one single agreement, which would have the US on board as a signatory right from the start.

Boycott appears to become a preferred negotiating strategy of the developing country parties but walking out of the meeting does not only fail to address the roots of the underlying dissent, on the contrary, it is counterproductive as invaluable negotiating time is lost due to the procedural suspensions. Time is running out in Copenhagen with only two days of consultations left before heads of state arrive to achieve clarifications on the outstanding critical questions. Every hour that is not spent on removing one of the numerous brackets in the first negotiating draft text which has been in circulation since Friday can at this point be considered an hour lost for global climate change policy. In fact, some heads of state, particularly from the developing world have already announced their absence from the high-level talks starting on Wednesday if no agreement is ready on the table awaiting their signature. Others, including UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his colleagues from Australia, Norway, Bangladesh and Ethiopia have announced their early arrival in Copenhagen tomorrow night already, in order to add vital momentum to the slowed down negotiating process.

We have also seen some progress today, regarding the critical issue of financing. Norway and Mexico have launched a new model for funding mitigation and adaptation actions in developing countries. The establishment of a Green Fund should ensure sufficient and predictable financial flows that are estimated to increase from around 10 billion dollars per year until 2013 up to 30-40 billion dollars by 2020. The joint proposal draws on the individual submissions on funding by both governments. According to the Norwegian approach, the main source of funding should be the auctioning of a certain fraction of the emission allowances allocated to governments, whilst Mexico suggests the determination of individual countries’ contributions to the global capital pool based on emission levels, GDP, and population. The joint proposal presented today combines these sources of financing. Whether the common proposal finds the acceptance among negotiating parties and is able to trigger progress in the negotiations will be seen.

To sum up today’s events, when Yvo de Boer was asked about the progress of the talks at the daily UNFCCC press conference this morning, he explained that, if COP 15 was a mountain, we have now climbed half way up and are ready to queue for the cable car to reach the summit “fast, smooth and relaxing.” Despite his positive spirits, however, today’s lack of progress in the sessions has made clear that the cable car towards a Copenhagen agreement might not follow the timetable – it could be delayed, go in the wrong direction or it may have to stop by the developing countries pulling the emergency brakes. Most importantly, it must be decided which tracks the cable car should eventually run on – the Kyoto track, the Convention track or both?

Ends --

By Guy Turner, New Energy Finance