Carbon Footprints & Cars
Houston, 05/01/2007
The New Year resolutions thrive. Key among them is the reduction of carbon footprints, or the diminished use of fossil fuels that cause ecological damage. Can driving hybrid vehicles that run on a combination of electricity and gasoline help?
While folks can drive less or use hybrids, it's uncertain that such diligence can truly affect overall pollution levels in the long run. Sales of vehicles that run on alternative fuels are expected to keep rising. But, that type of conservation is likely to be offset by a 2-percent increase in energy demand through 2030. Consumption of both coal and oil are going up, along with the emissions associated with them.
Add to that the prediction that oil prices are expected to rise only slightly by 2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Beyond that, they may even fall and thereby provide consumers less incentive to conserve.
With those fundamentals in place, some carmakers are lobbying the new Congress to extend the tax breaks given to hybrid vehicles. The 2005 Energy Policy Act provides up to $3,600 in tax credits to those who buy hybrids. But, that credit declines as car companies reach their legal production limit, which is 60,000 vehicles. The tax credit is supposed to expire at the end of 2007, unless Congress renews it.
In June, sales of hybrids peaked at an all time annual rate of 1.5 million cars. But, in October, such sales fell drastically because gas prices dropped noticeably while Toyota hit its production limit. The federal tax credit for the Toyota Prius, which is the biggest selling hybrid car in the United States, declined from $3,150 to $1,575 and led to a 22.4 percent decline in Toyota Prius sales between June and October. Altogether, hybrids now comprise 1 percent of all cars on the road.
"By encouraging consumer support for a promising new technology, our government is supporting innovation and investing in our nation's future," says Jim Press, president of Toyota North America, at a conference sponsored by the Electric Drive Transportation Association. "We'd like to see those tax incentives continue."
Hybrids use an internal combustion engine that runs on petroleum. But, unlike conventional cars, they convert energy during braking or coasting and store that in a battery used by the electric motor. That conversion process is using energy that is normally wasted by all gas cars. That's why hybrids get better gas mileage in the city.
Critically, hybrids cost about $3,500 to $5,000 more than traditional cars and the gas savings don't stretch that much unless the car is kept a long time. If gas prices remain around $2.50 a gallon, the pay-off for motorists would take five to seven years, assuming the tax credit is re-enacted in full. If not, the time frame to recapture one's additional investment would be double, hardly motivating the average consumer.
Gaining Scale
Clearly, drivers are making a statement when they buy alternatively-fueled vehicles. While price is an important consideration, the overriding concern is the environmental impact. That's why organizations such as the Union of Concerned Scientists are pushing the auto manufacturers to pour more resources into increasing research and production. Scale would bring about better performance and more competitive cars.
At present, hybrids do best in cities, where they can get up to 50 miles a gallon. When it comes to highway performance, small traditional cars are more gas efficient. Meantime, batteries are an expensive component of hybrids -- about $4,900 -- and some consumers worry about the cost of replacing them once warranties run out.
Needless-to-say, the technologies associated with hybrids will improve with time. And more automakers are getting in on the action, with Nissan and General Motors planning to introduce their versions in the next few years. Along those lines, plug-in hybrids are coming -- or cars that can be charged at night in an electrical outlet and which derive most of their power from the transmission grid.
"Hybrids are a positive step," says Mark Duvall, manager of technology development for electric transportation at EPRI, which is working with Daimler-Chrysler to develop a plug-in hybrid that it says will cost 75-cents a gas-equivalent gallon. "Plug-ins are an efficiency improvement and use the same components as today's hybrids and could be mass produced by 2010, which would be quite rapid."
Meantime, Honda offers a vehicle that runs just on natural gas. Its Civic GX is sold in California and New York. Natural gas, says Honda, cost about 60 percent less than the gasoline at the pumps.
Ultimately, however, the aim is to get to hydrogen fuel cells that burn the cleanest of all. While hybrid vehicles will decrease oil consumption, they will do little to offset the expected rise in oil consumption in the coming decades that will come from developing nations. Therefore, any long-term solution must rely more on petroleum substitutes.
"For the global auto industry, this means that we must, as a business necessity, develop alternative sources of propulsion based on alternative sources of energy in order to meet the world's growing demand for our products," says Rick Wagoner, CEO of GM at a Los Angeles auto show.
Even Wagoner says that traditional gasoline-fired cars will remain the norm for years to come. But, he does add that alternatively-fueled vehicles will provide a huge market opportunity for GM and other carmakers. Hybrids are a reality. If the price of gasoline remains historically high and with the appropriate government incentives, they could become a lot more pervasive and lead to a possible reduction in carbon emissions.
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