Introduction
By Guy Isherwood, Editor, Commodities Now.

Core Business Strength & Product Innovation Cap Another Strong Year
LME markets continue to shine as core business remains robust and new contract developments proceed at a more sensible pace. LME Chief Executive Simon Heale, discussed these and other issues shaping events at the exchange.
By Guy Isherwood, Editor, Commodities Now.

Taking the 'Con' Out of Consensus Forecasts: A Guide for the Commodities Trade
Are consensus forecasts scientific? Even more to the point, are they accurate? And if not, what good are they? Let's answer these questions in reverse order, building up from modest expectations to the more ambitious, but before doing so, what exactly do I mean by a consensus forecast?
By David A. Gulley, Editor, Metals Market Sentiment.

Aluminium Outlook to 2006
. In 2004 the aluminium market has moved decisively from a surplus to a deficit, which we estimate will be around 600,000 tonnes. In our view, the price risk is on the upside, thanks to strong growth in US aluminium demand, constraints on North American metal production, the possibility of strike action at several US smelters, and the disruption of Jamaican alumina production caused by Hurricane Ivan.
. We expect the deficit in the aluminium market to continue through the early months of 2005, switching to a small surplus in the second half. We expect the rate of growth in consumption to slow progressively throughout the year as the rate of growth in industrial production (IP) falls. Conversely, we expect production to increase - as a number of expansions come on stream and strike hit smelters return to work - and the market to be in balance overall for the year. We expect a surplus of 680,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in 2006.
. We expect the alumina market to remain tight until 2006 and spot alumina prices to remain high until then.
By Alan Richards.

Nickel: High Prices but Limited Supply Response
Nickel prices remain very strong and are at their highest levels since the 1988/89 bull cycle but the supply response has been, and is, very limited. This is an unusual situation and marks a departure from the norm. In this article we examine the reasons why this situation has arisen, how it is likely to be resolved and over what timeframe.
By Robin Bhar, Base Metals Analyst, Standard Bank London Ltd.

Is the Theory of Self-Hedging Commodities True?
There is clearly some truth to the self-hedging concept - but only for some metals.
By Peter Hollands, Bloomsbury Minerals Economics.

Precious Metals Prospects: Extending the Trading Franchise
Various initiatives are underway to extend access to electronic trading in gold and silver, as an alternative to voice broking for the inter-dealer market. The CBOT has just unveiled its full-sized gold and silver futures contracts. EBS has reached an agreement with its Prime Banks to provide extended access to trade gold and silver. Active negotiations are also allegedly underway between NYMEX and the Dubai International Financial Centre to list energy and metals contracts. These, and other developments, reflect growing investor interest in the principal range of precious metals.
By Guy Isherwood, Editor, Commodities Now.

The Changing Course of Mining
In 2000, at the annual meeting of the World Bank Group (WBG) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Prague, WBG President James Wolfensohn responded to the criticism from the non-governmental community on WBG's involvement in extractive industries with a promise to review the Bank's role in this sector. In July 2001 the Extractive Industries Review (EIR) team was initiated. The terms of reference was focussed on reviewing the WBG role in extractive industries to alleviate poverty through sustainable development. The outcome of this review is useful not only for the WBG, but for the whole extractive industry.
By Dr. Emir Salim.

Iron Ore: The Boom Continues
Chinese demand for iron ore, whether imported or domestically produced, is the key determinant of the outlook for the global iron ore market in the short-term. But over-capacity could become a problem in the medium-term.
By Magnus Ericsson, Managing Director, RMG.

BEE in South Africa's Mining Industry
The mining sector is one of the most important drivers of the South African economy accounting for about 8% of South Africa's GDP and around 45% of the total market capitalisation of the JSE securities exchange. (Chamber of Mines, 2002, Empowerdex, 2004a).
By Chia-Chao Wu & Lullu Krugel.