Crude Calculations for Gold
In retrospect 2002 was an easy year for gold trading ­ the multi year bear trend finally ended in the first quarter, with the bullion price breaking above US$300 and setting off on spectacular rise that saw US$380 briefly touched a few weeks back. Coarse, but often effective, technical indicators such as the 200 day simple moving average dutifully turned up and trend followers happily joined in the start of the first serious bull move for years. For analysts that ignore or discount technical indicators the move was triggered by de-hedging, and speculative futures trading.
By Gerald Ashley.

The Fog of War
When analysing geo-political risks, it is tempting to use analogous situations thrown up by history and geography. Although it is natural to start with the Gulf War of 1991, it is of at least equal importance to keep in mind the differences between then and now, as the two situations could imply very different economic and market consequences. Barclays Capital discuss how various markets ­ oil, bonds, equities, currencies and commodities ­ reacted before, during and after the 1991 Gulf War. The conclusion describes potential implications of three war scenarios: (1) no war; (2) short, contained war; and (3) protracted and broadening war.
By Henry Willmore, Brad Stone & Gemma wright.

Pumping Up BP
In an historic and bold move which caught many a market watcher napping, BP last month unveiled the single largest foreign equity investment in Russia ­ about one and a half times the total foreign directed investment in Russia last year. Guy Isherwood reports on the progress towards BP's historic Russian alliance.
By Guy Isherwood, Editor, Commodities Now.

Effective Corporate Risk Governance
There is a saying that what the automotive industry does today the rest of the world does tomorrow (such as flow manufacturing, kanban, dual-source procurement). But in the area of corporate risk management energy companies may well be paving the way for more industries than may be immediately apparent.
By Bob Bridger.

Top 10 Energy Market IT Related Developments for 2003
The energy industry has undergone extraordinary turbulence in the last few years traumatically impacting retail and wholesale energy markets. These industry and market developments have enormous implications for information technology demand and the suppliers that service the industry.
By Paul Mahady.

North American LNG: Two Steps Forward, One Half Step Back
After years of being considered uncompetitive with traditional natural gas supplies, LNG is poised to make significant inroads in the North American market. This greater market penetration can be attributed to changing fundamentals, new regulatory policies and advances in technology. These developments have helped make the liquidification, transport and re-gasification of LNG a cost effective alternative to indigenous supplies of North American natural gas.
By Alan M. Herbst.

Precious Thoughts
This article is intended to succinctly review the major developments and outlook for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. Tremendous changes are occurring in each of these markets at present, in supply, demand, ownership of inventories, and prices. Some of these are long-term developments that span many years or decades. Others are shorter-term, lasting maybe one to three years.
By Jeffrey Christian, Managing Director, CPM Group.

New Insights into the Drivers of Metals Prices
Latest work by Bloomsbury Minerals Economics (BME) has shed fresh light on the different drivers of metals prices. BME also enters the debate between the two rival schools of thought on metals prices: analysts who follow market balance and stocks, versus those who believe in the IP cycle. BME's conclusion: both schools represent partial truths; much more powerful understanding of prices comes from robust models taking account of all three main drivers: exchange rates, the IP cycle and stocks. Models using the various drivers simultaneously can greatly enhance decision making in trading, investment, production and revenue management in the mining and metals industries.
By Peter Hollands.

Copper Market Pricing
Expected to be Revolutionalised by Government Stockpiles & New Producer Strategies Whereas previous economic theory was that the closure of high cost mines in response to low metal prices would bring about a sufficient reduction in copper supply to return the copper market to balance, this clearly broke down progressively during the 1990s. A new approach was needed. Two low cost producers developed a revolutionary strategy.
By Peter Hollands & Alan Richards, Bloomsbury Minerals Economis Ltd.

50 Key Women in Energy 2002
50 global honourees, representing approximately 23 countries, were honoured in RaderEnergy's 2002 global awards programme 50 Key Women in Energy. Honourees travelled from South Africa, the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Austria, the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, the US and Canada to attend the February ceremony during the E-World Energy & Water International Fair and Congress in Essen, Germany.
By Linda K. Rader.

Restructuring Russian Power
With the third reading of the six bills on electricity reform completed, all that remains is President Putin¹s signature to bring forward root-and-branch reform of Russia¹s ailing electricity sector. But major obstacles and dissent still remain before Russia¹s electricity experiment is likely to bear fruit.
By Guy Isherwood, Editor, Commodities Now.

Generational Energy
In the increasingly competitive European power market there are signs that the market dynamics of consolidation are becoming more important than those of competition and that, as a result, the focal point of business management has to change to reflect this. An alternative way of addressing this market evolution is that companies will have to adapt and be less reactive to competition dynamics and develop more proactive business strategies that reflect the growing importance of consolidation dynamics.
By Jeremy Wilcox.

The Brazilian Iron & Steel Sector & the CDM
As part of the steel production process, large quantities of carbon feedstocks (thermo-reduction agents) are used. Internationally, the main source of carbon feedstock is coke, obtained from the dry distillation of coal, one the most carbon intensive fossil fuels. However, the Brazilian steel sector is the only one globally that uses charcoal as a reducing agent. Given that charcoal is a renewable fuel source, charcoal-based steel can therefore be considered 'carbon neutral'.
By Pedro Moura Costa & Nuno Cunha e Silva, EcoSecurities.

How Workable Legislation Contributes to the Prevention of Environmental Damage
The blame game in the aftermath of the Prestige catastrophe demonstrates the need for urgent community action on environmental liability to ensure that future clean-up bills are paid for and prevent such disasters from arising in the first place. The European Parliament is currently considering the Commission's environmental liability legislation proposal, which calls for an administrative programme of operator liability as an addition to regulatory controls.
By Richard Stewart & Toine Manders.

Insourced Profits from Outsourced Services
With the increasing adoption of full-cycle customer interaction in businesses today, more and more customer-centric companies are discovering that it is not only cost effective but profitable to outsource certain non-core competencies, particularly those dealing with customer contacts and relationships.
By Morgan Smith.